Recently, a video of an American farmer’s lament went viral online.
“Look, this is the best crop I’ve ever grown! But now, because of the tariff war, China won’t buy it. I can only grind it up and throw it in the field because it’s unsaleable and worthless.”
In the golden soybean fields, giant harvesters crush plump soybeans into fine powder—this isn’t the joy of a good harvest, but a “ritual of despair” that American farmer John Smith livestreamed on social media.
In September of this year, China’s orders for American soybeans dropped to zero, and 7 million tons of unsold soybeans are being crushed and returned to the fields at a rate of 12 tons per minute.
In the 1930s, during the Great Depression in the United States, the value of milk plummeted. To cope with this economic phenomenon and minimize losses, capitalists resorted to dumping milk.
Now, a modern-day “milk dumping” incident is unfolding again in the US. However, this time, the protagonists are ordinary farmers instead of capitalists, and the milk is soybeans.
Why is this happening? This tariff-induced agricultural disaster has revealed the cruelest truth of the global trade war. American Soybean Association President Ragland is frantic. He publicly stated, “In previous years, 8% to 9% of soybeans would have been registered for sale to China, but now that number is zero.” For American farmers, who once accounted for the bulk of China’s soybean imports, this is as embarrassing as not receiving red envelopes from relatives during the Lunar New Year. The change is shocking. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the United States, accounting for 21% of its exports. In just one year, the situation has taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Not only soybeans, but also American sorghum has suffered the same fate. In January and February of this year, the United States sold just over 70,000 tons of sorghum to China, a 95% drop from just over 1.4 million tons in the same period last year. The latest data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the disappearance of Chinese orders has caused US soybean inventories to exceed 20 million tons, with storage facilities in the Midwest at 83% utilization. The president of the Iowa Farmers’ Association presented financial statements showing soybean losses reaching $100 per acre, and soybean prices in North Dakota have fallen below production costs to $8.83 per bushel.
Compared to the golden age of the seven years before the trade war, when China purchased an average of 32.9 million tons annually, accounting for 60% of US soybean exports, exports to China plummeted to less than 9 million tons in 2025.
A University of Wisconsin study confirmed that every million tons of exports lost translates to 2,400 jobs, and 88 farms have already filed for bankruptcy.
A Chicago Board of Trade chart reveals that the US soybean market share in China plummeted from 34% in 2018 to 9% in 2025, while Brazil’s share of exports to China soared to 71% during the same period.
In March 2025, Brazil exported 15.7 million tons to China, equivalent to one-third of China’s monthly crushing volume.
Chinese customs data show that strategic reserves have increased to 45 million tons, and domestic production is expected to reach 21 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has promoted soybean meal reduction technology, resulting in an 8% year-on-year decrease in soybean meal usage by 2024, forming a triangular defense system of “reserve + substitution + diversified imports.”
In 444 agricultural counties where Trump once received 77% of the vote, tractors are surrounding state capitols.
The Indiana Agricultural Association withdrew $2 million in political donations, and the loan default rate for Arkansas farmers has risen to 17%.
Satellite imagery shows that 12% of arable land in the Midwest is experiencing early desertification, highlighting the vulnerability of the monoculture economy.
COFCO’s terminal at the Port of Santos, Brazil, already handles 2.4 million tons of soybeans per month, leading to a 5,170% surge in Argentine exports to China.
A comparison of landed prices shows that US soybeans are $38 per ton more expensive than Brazilian soybeans, completely losing their price advantage.
Brazilian soybeans are not only over 10% cheaper than US soybeans, but also offer lower shipping times and costs to China.
Brazilian soybean prices are as low as $383 per ton, offering a significant price advantage over US soybeans. Furthermore, shipping time from Brazil to China is 10 days faster than from the United States, and freight costs are lower.
These factors make Brazilian soybeans more competitive in the Chinese market.
For cost reasons, Chinese feed mills and oil mills naturally choose Brazilian soybeans, which are cheaper and less expensive.
This “not putting all your eggs in one basket” strategy gives China the initiative in the trade friction.
This time, however, American soybeans have really taken a big hit.
What’s the problem?
Why is China no longer buying American soybeans?
The underlying cause of this crisis is the trade friction instigated by the Trump administration.
Trump’s relentless tariff increases have directly caused the price of American soybeans to skyrocket to $1,026 per ton, while Brazilian soybeans are only $580 per ton!
This price difference is not insignificant; it’s like the same piece of clothing: one selling for 100 yuan and the other for 50 yuan. Which would you choose?
American soybeans have instantly lost their competitiveness in the Chinese market.
The current difficulties facing American agriculture affect not only farmers but also the entire agricultural industry chain. Without money to collect for their crops, farmers have no money to buy new seeds and fertilizers, and farm machinery repairs have to be postponed, leading to a decline in business at agricultural supply stores.
Soybeans and sorghum are piling up at ports and unable to be shipped. Trucking companies are facing fewer orders, and drivers are at risk of losing their jobs.
Even factories processing soybeans and sorghum have had to reduce production capacity due to reduced raw material imports, and some have even begun laying off employees.
The American Soybean Association previously wrote a letter to the White House, stating that “farmers are struggling. Without orders, many will have to give up farming.”
They urged the government to quickly negotiate with China, either to lift tariffs or to secure new purchase agreements.
Now, Brazilian soybeans account for 70% of China’s imported soybean market, with the remaining 30% coming from Russia and Argentina. And what about the United States?
It’s completely out of the game!
It’s like a football game where the US team’s main striker is sent off for a foul, while Brazil seizes the opportunity, scores several goals, and ultimately wins the game.
This is reality!
Some say it’s Trump’s fault. This isn’t entirely wrong.
Mistakes in US trade policy toward China have directly led to sluggish sales of US soybeans.
Going back to the beginning of this article, why are American farmers forced to destroy their soybeans after losing Chinese buyers?
The answer is simple: production costs.
China’s actions have made it clear: Want to sell soybeans? First, lift the tariffs.
This isn’t an emotional confrontation, but simple accounting.
Agricultural products during periods of high tariffs are completely uncompetitive in the face of market prices. Lowering barriers is the only way to negotiate cooperation; this is the bottom line of trade.
However, judging by current trends, the US government seems more willing to maintain its seemingly tough stance.
But trade partners don’t care about how well you act; they only care about price, supply schedules, and the stability of the relationship.
South American supply chains have taken advantage of this opportunity to grow in recent years, but the US’s influence in the Chinese market has actually been weakened.
To put it bluntly, the tariff wall, originally intended to “protect its own industry,” has ended up blocking the first people: its own farmers. Interestingly, this soybean war also sends a signal to the outside world: China is not just the world’s factory; it’s a massive market that everyone is vying to enter.
Buyer status means being able to choose supply sources, while sellers who overly rely on a single market often suffer if relations become strained.
Trump can post late at night and proclaim “American soybeans are best,” but the market doesn’t lie.
When the US imposed a chip blockade while expecting unconditional soybean purchases from China, it had already lost trust.
China, on the other hand, has demonstrated through its actions that:
Food security depends not on handouts but on strategic planning;
Trade initiative depends not on begging but on strength.
As the roar of crushers echoes across the North American plains, this tariff war has become a textbook example of the backlash of unilateralism.
History has repeatedly proven that economic laws will ultimately judge political manipulation, and the losers in the era of globalization will always be ordinary people held hostage by ideology.