On September 5th, local time, the US Department of Labor released the latest employment data. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, far below market expectations of 75,000, a complete letdown.
Not to mention that the data for previous months had been severely revised: July’s figure went from 73,000 to 79,000, which seemed like a slight increase, but in June, it went from 27,000 to -13,000, a negative number.
The financial world, supposedly as stable as a stalemate, was suddenly thrown into chaos by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ sudden “cold pot popcorn.”
As a result, all three major New York stock indexes fell on the 5th, and the US dollar index and US long-term Treasury yields plummeted.
No one expected that the “jobs-obsessed” United States would suffer from such a data upset, demonstrating that the job market is truly, quite frustratingly weak. Over the past few months, the labor market has been performing poorly, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest point since 2021. It truly feels like the entire economy is teetering on the brink of collapse.
Isn’t it said that a new official’s first major move, or a change in director, makes the world a better place?
But Trump personally fired BLS Director McCarty, accusing her of “manipulating employment data for political purposes.” Ultimately, the data remains dismal, and instead of recovering, it only fuels further anxiety.
Originally, the forecasts were in the hundreds of thousands or millions, but once released, they were reduced to a fraction.
Let’s dig deeper, and this slew of manipulations doesn’t stop there. The BLS revised the July figures in August, and then also shuffled the June data.
The June figures went from a plus of 20,000 to a minus of 13,000. This magnitude of adjustment would even make headlines if it were a sports event.
Not only is the public annoyed, but the Census Bureau is probably also having a hard time. Is this kind of frequent change of pace a tradition? A closer look at history reveals this is a classic American trick.
In the 1960s, during the Vietnam War, the government needed to “cover up” and simply changed the fiscal deficit calculation method.
Johnson had the “final say,” directly rejecting data he didn’t like and demanding a recalculation.
Nixon was no slouch either. When inflation hit, he simply had the Census Bureau remove eggs and meat from the CPI, feeling comfortable lowering the inflation rate.
Scandals of “fabricating data” and “cooperative fraud” also surfaced during the Clinton and Bush administrations.
To put it nicely, it’s about maintaining the nation’s image.
To put it bluntly, it’s about the manipulation of truth by power.
Not to mention, the countless steps involved in the creation and release of major economic data—who says there aren’t subtleties involved?
You think it’s math, but it’s actually all about the art of hypocrisy.
Changing leadership is just changing the referee; the rules of the game remain the same. Trump’s firing of the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August, accusing them of “manipulating employment data,” further bolstered the question of whether U.S. economic data is being embellished.
Isn’t it another kind of irony that the data hasn’t improved despite the departure of officials?
Now the question arises: who is actually determining the “red and green lights” in the employment report?
Frankly, data adjustments were once commonplace in the United States.
These seemingly serious reports are actually being “patched” every month: preliminary figures are reported to gauge market sentiment, and then revisions are made, along with the psychological tolerance of various experts.
Seemingly frequent, this kind of manipulation makes one wonder if data can be “customized.”
To put it bluntly, the publishing agencies hold the final say over the data, adjusting it however they please. Isn’t this essentially playing both referee and player?
Furthermore, the U.S. government’s constant stream of layoffs has left the already stressed-out data collection team even more stretched. Trump simply eliminated the advisory committee responsible for interpreting economic data, and the budgets of various statistical bureaus have been cut again and again, seemingly offering workers a “pie in the sky” and then collecting their “meal ticket.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has cut 15% of its staff, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau haven’t been left out either.
Do you think that’s the end?
The newly nominated director, Anthony, has even advocated for suspending the monthly employment report, claiming that “the economic model is fundamentally flawed” and that the report itself is untrustworthy.
He smashed the sign in front of people, causing shock.
Even more ridiculous is that no one is willing to respond to statistical inquiries. Phone calls are ignored, and even offices are closed.
Statisticians have become a lost cause, with forecasts becoming increasingly off-base and data constantly being reworked.
Government layoffs continue in waves, hundreds of databases and thousands of websites have been taken offline, and statistical operations have been paralyzed.
The truth about the American economy has become even more confusing.
Data is the ballast of social trust; everyone relies on it. As a result, the combined effects of power struggles, layoffs, and data collection difficulties have reduced this “ballast” to a mere pie in the sky.
The public’s trust and sense of security in official data have become nothing more than a castle in the air.
Some question whether the report was “written on the spur of the moment,” others believe it’s a staged performance, and many more are left helplessly watching the drama unfold.
The media, experts, and politicians are all caught up in this trust war, each with their own filter and their own opinions.
“Can the data still be trusted?” has become a more anxious question than “What’s for dinner tonight?”
This is the current state of US employment data.
To put it bluntly, economic data, supposedly objective and neutral, is being used as a tool for power and profit.
History repeats itself, with each administration striving to be a “mathematical magician” who creates something out of nothing, and each official striving to make the report more consistent with their own “main theme.”
The public hopes to uncover the truth, but they are trapped in the middle of the drama, allowing the plot to twist and turn.
Without trust, data is like a piece of waste paper. Whether it’s an economic recovery or a crisis, the public can only sigh as they watch the data: What can we really expect from this data?
Even more outrageous is Trump’s continued rhetoric. This week, he said the “real numbers” will be released in a year, and that job growth will be “absolutely incredible.”
On September 4th, he told reporters, “You’re going to see job growth the likes of which America has never seen.”
Could it be that he’s laying the groundwork for a plot twist next season?
However, with manufacturing jobs continuing to shed, Trump’s campaign promise of “bringing factories home” is becoming a major setback.
Is the US economy collapsing?
The answer is yes.
The market is almost unanimously pointing to the combined effects of several key factors.
First, the Trump administration’s trade and tariff policies are seen as the primary culprit.
These policies not only directly impact trade-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade, but more importantly, they create immense business uncertainty, dampening businesses’ willingness to hire and invest.
Second, the government’s own policies have also contributed to the economic downturn. On the one hand, tightened immigration policies have reduced the labor supply, particularly in sectors like construction.
On the other hand, federal government spending cuts have directly led to a continued decline in government employment, with a cumulative loss of 97,000 jobs since January.
The weak data has intensified market expectations for an interest rate cut, which is likely to be the big surprise this time.
The consensus is that this rate cut is not intended to combat inflation, but to address the “difficult winter” in the job market.
And what about President Trump?
He immediately shifted the blame onto the Federal Reserve, almost becoming a joke.
On September 5th, Trump again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for “acting too late,” claiming that a rate cut should have been made long ago, but now it’s “too late once again.”
When rate cuts go from being “the icing on the cake” to “a lifeline,” the rules of the capital game have changed!
Employment data is showing its fangs—the inflated job numbers of the past three years are starting to bite back, and the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector, masked by the booming service sector, is finally bearing fruit.
The policy mix has become a deadly combination—interest rate cuts to save the market versus tariffs that hurt businesses. This contradictory approach could plunge the US economy into an inflation-recession cycle.
Even more worryingly, if political factors continue to interfere in the future, economic policy could become even more chaotic, and public confidence would continue to plummet.
What do you think of this “magic show” of US employment data? Will you still trust the next report?